规划是大都会的标志. It's what makes us successful in delivering water reliability to a region with limited local resources. 自1996年以来, we've looked 25 years ahead to assess the needs of Southern California and adapt to ever-evolving challenges. 水资源综合规划, 每五年更新一次, 是指导供水投资不可或缺的工具吗, 计划和政策. It allows our member agencies to make their plans for water deliveries in their service areas. The result - Southern California water supplies are reliable and Metropolitan is braced for change.
我们的供水仍然面临威胁. 气候变化的不确定性, 自然灾害, 以及监管要求, 以及南加州的人口和经济, 会影响该地区的水供需吗, 要求我们继续适应和规划，以确保我们的未来. 为未来的不确定性做好准备至关重要.
这就是为什么我们在2020年以一种全新的方法启动了一个新的IRP流程, looking at multiple scenarios that could play out in the future and how Metropolitan could respond to maintain water reliability for the region.
我们的IRP计划不是在真空中进行的. 它与其他长期计划(如新计划)协调一致 气候行动计划 以及大都会2020年城市水管理计划. Metropolitan's IRP is also coordinated with member agency plans to develop local resources.
The IRP anticipates how much water Southern California can expect from its imported and local supplies, 并预测区域用水需求. Understanding the gap between supplies and demand helps set the targets to maintain reliability and inform the board on what actions Metropolitan and its member agencies can take to 关闭 that gap.
但过去的计划只着眼于单一的预测. 考虑到我们面临的所有不确定性, the 2020 IRP looks at multiple scenarios that could plausibly unfold in the future. 从这些协作练习中, 我们正在调查资源, 政策, 投资需要维持到2045年的可靠供水. We are developing an adaptive management strategy along with a series of performance measures and reality checks to help inform us on what plausible future we are heading towards, 这样计划就可以根据需要进行调整.
Identify the uncertain factors that could challenge or benefit Southern California’s water supply.
记住这些潜在的影响，发展 四个场景 看看这些因素如何在每种情况下发挥作用, 促进对更广泛的潜在结果有更深入的了解.
变化的主要驱动因素，如气候变化, 监管要求, and the economy will have uncertain but potentially significant effects on both water supply and demands. These and many other drivers of change were identified through a collaborative process with Metropolitan’s stakeholders. The process of quantifying the impacts of these drivers within each scenario is underway. 对每种情况下的主要驱动因素的定性评估如下:
Look at the gap between expected water supplies and how much water the region will need in each scenario.
利用差距分析的洞察力, 确定解决每个场景结果的解决方案和政策, 在未来不确定的情况下提高可靠性.
Metropolitan has enlisted the support of expert consultants in the fields of water demand and climate change to help us better understand the key drivers affecting future water reliability. 这些专家回答了大都会188bet棋牌平台人员提出的初步收费问题, 在研讨会期间与董事会成员和成员机构188bet棋牌平台人员接触, 并继续回答后续问题. 他们的最后备忘录将列入IRP的附录.
南加州未来的人口增长, housing mix and economy are drivers that will have considerable influence on future demands on Metropolitan supplies. 为了更好地理解这些驱动因素, 大都会聘请了五位在这些问题上具有不同专业知识的顾问. 3月23日, 2021, they participated in a three-hour board workshop to share insights on key influences of future water demands in Southern California.
Director and Senior Economist of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto
A公司CEO & N技术服务公司.
经济问题和水资源利用方面的专家, 农业生产, 城市节水, 生态系统服务, 环境法规
Southern California’s water future will be profoundly impacted by our changing climate. 科学无法给出一个精确的答案, 考虑到未来的决定将如何影响未来的温室气体排放水平. But experts studying climate change can provide a range of potential futures to assist Metropolitan in updating the district’s long-term water strategy. 5月25日, the Metropolitan 董事会 held a three-hour workshop to listen to four climate change experts provide insights into their re搜索 and their thoughts on prudent planning.
Assistant Professor, University of Minnesota Department of Soil, Water and Climate
Senior Water and Climate Re搜索 Scientist at Colorado Water Institute, Colorado State University
The year 2020 marked the conclusion of a 25-year planning cycle that was first envisioned by Metropolitan’s inaugural IRP in 1996. 大都会从未像188bet棋牌平台这样可靠过. 区域用水需求远低于预期, thanks in large part to Southern Californians adopting and maintaining water-saving behaviors. Metropolitan has also stored a record amount of water for drought or other emergencies.